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EL REAL MADRID EN ÁREA RIVAL

Dice el tópico que el fútbol es un estado de ánimo. Si bien este concepto es tan subjetivo como abstracto, y por tanto se encuentra en las antípodas del análisis que aquí se propone, casi cualquiera al que se le cuestione sobre el momento de forma del Madrid manifestará que se trata del más delicado desde la llegada de Zidane al banquillo. También convendremos que esa dinámica negativa que mantiene al equipo lejos del liderato desde el inicio de la temporada tiene una de sus principales causas en la falta de gol. A falta de 5 jornadas para el final de la primera vuelta, el Real Madrid es tan sólo el 5º equipo más goleador del campeonato, con 25 tantos, doce menos que la pasada liga a estas alturas. Además, acumula ya tres jornadas sin marcar, circunstancia que no se produjo en toda la 16/17.

A la luz de estos datos nos hemos propuesto realizar un análisis más exhaustivo del ataque madridista para buscar explicar, en la medida en que los datos lo hacen posible, las causas y síntomas del empeoramiento de su cifra goleadora. Para ello hemos analizado los dos aspectos que más directamente determinan la consecución de goles: la generación de situaciones de gol y la efectividad a la hora de resolverlas.

 

Generación

El primer aspecto analizado es el volumen de ocasiones de gol que está generando el Real Madrid esta temporada, poniéndolo también en comparación con los números de la pasada Liga.

 

Se comprueba que su volumen de tiros y ocasiones generadas son los más altos de La Liga. Sus ratios son incluso ligeramente superiores a la pasada temporada, con más de 18 tiros y 14 ocasiones generadas por 90´ de juego.

En cuanto al modo en que se fabrican las ocasiones de gol, los centros laterales siguen teniendo un peso específico muy significativo en el sistema ofensivo del equipo; el 27.3% de las ocasiones generadas son a partir de centros al área, dato prácticamente idéntico al de la pasada Liga, en el que fue de 28.4%. Sin embargo, si se analizan los datos de los balones parados sí que se aprecia un marcado descenso en cuanto a generación y producción del Real Madrid esta temporada. En la jornada 14 de la pasada Liga el equipo había marcado 7 goles en córneres y faltas por los 5 que ha obtenido la presente temporada. Además, el equipo generaba 1.8 ocasiones ABP por 90´, dato que contrasta con el promedio de 1.17 de la actual, que supone tan sólo un 8.3% de su total (3er % más bajo de la competición).

Sin embargo, un gran volumen de tiros y ocasiones no implica necesariamente que la calidad de los ataques y situaciones de finalización sea alta. Para tratar de ofrecer una perspectiva más amplia, se analiza si la bajada de efectividad está motivada por una peor selección de los tiros o si, por el contrario, no se encuentra una relación directa.

Se observa un empeoramiento de todos los ratios relativos a la selección de tiros, poniendo de manifiesto que muchos de los disparos a puerta que se efectúan esta temporada se hacen en situaciones de menos claridad o ventaja de lo óptimo, lo que conlleva un descenso de efectividad. Pueden encontrarse en esta tendencia síntomas de un peor funcionamiento ofensivo, si bien no es lo suficientemente marcada para justificar la sequía del Real Madrid, especialmente teniendo en cuenta su abundante generación ofensiva. Cabe pensar, por tanto, que la principal de la causa de la falta de gol es, en definitiva, un problema de acierto rematador, es decir, de efectividad.

 

Efectividad

Tras comprobar que la generación de ocasiones del Real Madrid se mantiene al nivel de la Liga 16/17 y que únicamente se aprecian ratios ligeramente más deficitarios en lo que se refiere a la selección de tiro (con su consiguiente correlación con la efectividad de esos disparos), es momento de analizar con mayor detenimiento los datos de tiros a puerta para comprobar con qué efectividad se están ejecutando. Para ello se comienza comparando los parámetros de tiros por gol de los equipos de La Liga estas dos temporadas.

Esta comparativa refleja que el conjunto blanco ha pasado de estar en niveles de élite a tener el 12º ratio de La Liga. Más allá de esa marcada evolución negativa respecto a la última Liga, todos sus rivales directos en la zona alta de la tabla se encuentran entre los más efectivos, con ratios que que no superan los 7 tiros por gol (Barça, Valencia, Atlético…). Teniendo en cuenta el abundante volumen ofensivo del equipo, con unos números similares o cercanos a los equipos que tiene por delante, sin duda estaría mucho más cerca del liderato. El hecho de necesitar de 4.5 tiros más que la pasada Liga para anotar un gol supone un hándicap casi definitivo.

El desplome de la efectividad madridista se hace patente de forma igualmente explícita en lo que se refiere a los goles obtenidos a partir de centros al área, necesitando efectuar 54 centros para anotar gol a raíz de uno, lo que les sitúa como el  14º equipo en este apartado.

 

Minutos finales

El descenso del rendimiento del Real Madrid con respecto al año pasado se hace patente en numerosos ámbitos, algunos de los cuales (los que guardan una relación más directa con el ataque) ya se han analizado. Sin embargo, existe otro punto diferencial con respecto a la última Liga que terminarían ganando los madridistas: la renta obtenida en los minutos finales de cada partido. En la decimoquinta jornada de la 16/17,  el Madrid llevaba un diferencial de +6 puntos a partir del minuto 80, mientras que en la presente temporada se encuentra en +2. En los partidos que han llegado igualados al minuto 80 (con empate o un gol de diferencia), el equipo promedia 1.51 goles por 90´, lo que les sitúa en el 11º puesto de la Liga en ese ratio. Su ratio de tiros por gol en ese tramo de partidos es de 16.00 (15º de La Liga).

Desde el banquillo tampoco están apareciendo factores decisivos. El Real Madrid es sólo el 9º equipo en goles ajustados a por 90´tras cambios cuando el partido está igualado, es decir, cuando Zidane hace el primer cambio estando el partido empatado o con un gol de diferencia.

Rendimiento individual de los delanteros

Tras comprobar que la falta de gol de la que adolece el Real Madrid esta Liga está producida, en gran parte, por la pérdida de efectividad del equipo, se ha analizado el rendimiento individual de sus atacantes. Comparando los datos de la presente liga y la anterior, se presenta la evolución de la efectividad individual en los tiros, representando los disparos que necesitó efectuar cada jugador blanco para lograr un tanto.

Esta comparativa es la que más claramente pone de manifiesto el empobrecimiento del rendimiento ofensivo madridista, especialmente relevante en el caso de sus delanteros: mientras que el año pasado los tres miembros de la ‘BBC’ se encontraban por debajo de los 9 tiros por gol, en la presente campaña Benzema ha necesitado disparar 10,50 veces de media para marcar, por los 33,50 tiros que promedia Cristiano por cada gol.

Además, el gráfico del año pasado muestra a tres jugadores por entonces madridistas entre los 5 más efectivos del campeonato. De ellos, sólo Isco gozó de continuidad en el once titular durante la temporada, mientras que Morata y James aportaron ese punto diferencial de manera constante ya fuera desde el banquillo o no, algo que este año le está faltando al equipo.

 

Importancia de segunda linea

La falta de acierto de los atacantes blancos se ha traducido, como se ha expuesto previamente, en una pérdida de efectividad de todo el equipo, con las consecuencias clasificatorias que ello acarrea. Sin embargo, existe un contrapunto positivo que está mitigando los efectos de la sequía de la delantera blanca: la aportación de la segunda línea. Jugadores como Asensio, Isco y Casemiro han logrado goles que han significado puntos importantes para el equipo. Esa aportación goleadora destaca de un modo muy significativo sobre el resto de equipos del campeonato, tal y como se representa a continuación.

 

Generación de jugadores

A nivel de generación individual de ocasiones, el Real Madrid tiene varios a niveles de élite en Liga. De los 20 jugadores (+35% minutos jugados) que más ocasiones de gol generan por 90´ de juego, 5 son del Madrid: Isco, Asensio, Kroos, Benzema y Marcelo.

Se observa que el Real Madrid es el equipo que más jugadores sitúa en este top-20, sin mostrar excesiva dependencia de alguna individualidad, si bien Isco y Marcelo han sido de los más influyentes en este sentido del equipo en las últimas jornadas.

El equipo necesitará de una mejora importante para buscar acercarse al liderato. La lógica dice que solo por inercia el ratio de tiros por gol tiene que mejorar, pero solo con eso no valdría, ya que mientras no tienda a acercarse a algo similar a los 7.00 tiros por gol será prácticamente imposible que el equipo funcione en el apartado ofensivo.

 

Foto de portada: La Liga Multimedia

99 Comentarios
  • Lukas

    14 diciembre, 2017 at 5:14 pm Responder

    Simplemente deseo felicitarlos, que gran artículo. Muestra claramente que la famosa pegada del Real Madrid es un invento y que en esta temporada es realmente alarmante la falta de efectividad. Gracias

    • Fútbol Avanzado

      2 enero, 2018 at 10:51 am Responder

      Muchas gracias Lukas! Sin duda, el nivel de generación del R. Madrid no está siendo el mejor, pero aún así es mucho mayor que su producción a nivel goleadora. El problema de efectividad en ambas áreas está marcando su clasificación.

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