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LA TENDENCIA DEL DEPORTIVO

No es necesario profundizar demasiado en la temporada del Deportivo de La Coruña para darse cuenta de la delicada situación en la que se encuentra. Sin embargo, la evidencia de lo negativo en el rendimiento del equipo no resta interés a la hora de evaluar desde la estadística los diferentes problemas que pueden ilustrar, y también en parte explicar, los motivos por los que el equipo se encuentra en tan comprometida tesitura.

SITUACIÓN GENERAL:

A modo de preámbulo del análisis que se aborda, podemos ofrecer una serie de datos especialmente llamativos y esclarecedores del rendimiento del equipo. Es muy difícil ser competitivo cuando te encuentras en parámetros clave en la siguiente situación:

  • 17º en Tiros a puerta por 90´: 3.38
  • 19º en % de Tiros a puerta: 28.97%
  • 17º en Tiros por gol: 12.08
  • 19º en Tiros a puerta recibidos por 90´: 4.90
  • 18º en Tiros por gol encajado: 6.19
  • 20º en % de tiros a puerta parados: 56.56%

Cuando los datos son tan negativos en lo que a efectividad en las áreas se refiere, es prácticamente imposible que el rendimiento global del equipo roce el promedio.

Tampoco la concentración parece ser un punto fuerte de los deportivistas: es el segundo equipo de primera que peor entra en los partidos, con un diferencial de -4 goles en los 10 primeros minutos de cada encuentro, lo que en varias ocasiones les ha supuesto un lastre del que no han podido sobreponerse.

PRODUCCIÓN OFENSIVA

Si bien el principal problema del Deportivo parece encontrarse en el aspecto defensivo, con una media superior a los 2 goles encajados por partido, ya hemos introducido que su rendimiento está siendo deficiente en ambas áreas, con una efectividad propia y permitida muy alejadas de lo que sería sostenible. En cualquier caso, también es pertinente analizar su nivel de generación ofensiva, y ponerlo en contraste con el volumen de generación que el Deportivo permite a sus rivales. Esa comparativa nos lleva a un diferencial de -1.53 tiros por 90’, lo que supone que los blanquiazules estén en el 13º puesto de la liga. Para poner en contexto la producción ofensiva del equipo coruñés, la representamos en comparación con el resto de los equipos de la competición.

 

A nivel de volumen de generación, el equipo se encuentra alrededor del promedio de La Liga. No debería corresponder con su situación en la tabla. El problema es que la diferencia entre el volumen y la selección y calidad de sus tiros es muy grande. Necesita más de 12 tiros para marcar gol y más de 9.5 para generar un gol esperado. Ambos datos muy por debajo de la media.

Tirar más no es atacar mejor. La mala selección de tiro del equipo hace que esté entre los 5 peores tanto en % de tiros a puerta como en % de tiros bloqueados por la defensa rival.  

 

NIVEL DEFENSIVO

La defensa es probablemente la principal asignatura pendiente del Deportivo. Está entre los peores tanto en volumen como en eficacia permitida a sus rivales. En aspectos concretos como los centros o el balón parado, el sistema defensivo deportivista está teniendo un rendimiento muy bajo. Es el 16º equipo en centros por gol encajado, situación que se agrava a balón parado, faceta en la que el equipo es el peor de toda la Primera División, encajando un gol cada 16 córneres del rival y 0.48 goles ABP por 90 minutos de juego. (20º en ambos ratios, muy alejado del resto: el equipo 19º en goles ABP, promedia 0,32).

Pero los problemas del equipo en defensa no vienen sólo del balón parado: el Deportivo se encuentra entre los equipos de Primera que más situaciones de peligro permiten a sus rivales.

A ese volumen de ocasiones de gol y disparos recibidos se une la excesiva eficacia que el equipo permite a sus rivales a la hora de aprovechar esas situaciones. Le generan un gol esperado cada 7.8 tiros, estando entre los 5 peores ratios. Esto sumado a la propuesta habitual de repliegue del equipo y la gran cantidad de tiros que le generan por ello, hace que el sistema defensivo esté muy lejos de un rendimiento medio.  

Otro punto clave negativo durante la temporada ha sido la portería. El % de paradas de un portero no solo hace referencia a su nivel individual, también al de la defensa, pero en este caso ninguna de las piezas está rindiendo. El % global de paradas del Deportivo es el peor de La Liga. También lo es el de Rubén M. individualmente. No solo el % de paradas mide el rendimiento de la portería, también el % de goles esperados que van a puerta que son parados. En este caso, el Deportivo es 19º. La portería tampoco está dando puntos al equipo.

Si el nivel de la defensa es bajo, el de la portería no lo es menos. En partidos contra los 10 últimos clasificados, donde la mayoría de equipos mejoran sus promedios, el Deportivo baja aún más su % de paradas, descendiendo hasta el 54.5%.

 

PROPUESTA DE JUEGO

¿A qué juega el Deportivo? Es una pregunta con difícil respuesta. Los datos apuntan a que en los partidos del Deportivo se suele jugar a lo que quieren sus rivales. El equipo no destaca por ninguna característica en concreto. En muchos de los parámetros que miden juego, está en posiciones intermedias, sin nada definido.

+/- Pases en primeros 30 Mts por 90´: –10.25. 12º de La Liga.

+/- Pases en centro del campo por 90´: -25.89. 12º de La Liga.

+/- Pases hacia últimos 30 Mts por 90´: -17.53. 12º de La Liga.

Muy pocos equipos de La Liga están tan cerca del promedio en todas las zonas en cuestión de circulación de balón. Ni cede el balón, ni quiere tenerlo. Ha combinado partidos de muchos pases, y otros de mucho repliegue. Siempre coincidentes con el plan del rival.

En parámetros sobre como ataca el equipo, también ronda el puesto 10º en aspectos característicos de un equipo como el % de influencia de los centros al área o el % de juego en largo del equipo. Mucha variación de nuevo entre partidos. No existe propuesta de juego clara, ni el paso de varios entrenadores ha hecho que ninguna llegue a establecerse.

 

EVOLUCIÓN

Quizá lo más preocupante de la temporada del equipo coruñés sea su evolución a lo largo de la temporada. La situación del Deportivo, lejos de revertirse, tiende a empeorar. En una temporada marcada por los cambios de entrenador, casi todos los parámetros del equipo, tanto ofensivos como defensivos, muestran una ininterrumpida tendencia negativa.

A continuación se muestran varios parámetros clave en los que la progresión del equipo lleva muchas jornadas siendo muy negativa.

 

Estos gráficos muestran claramente que los parámetros aquí analizados no arrojan cambios significativos tras los cambios de entrenador, y siendo una obviedad que Seedorf aún no ha dispuesto del tiempo necesario para dejar su impronta en el equipo, y que dos partidos son un bagaje insuficiente para ser objeto de análisis, lo cierto es que la única tendencia que se observa en el Deportivo de forma casi invariable esta temporada es a empeorar sus registros, y que de no adquirir pronto una tendencia diametralmente opuesta a la mostrada hasta el momento, su deriva es peligrosa para la permanencia en la máxima categoría.

 

Foto Portada: La Liga Multimedia

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